Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009

Breeders’ Cup Saturday begins with the Damascus Stakes at seven furlongs and should showcase the short-priced favorite #3 M One Rifle. The Headley-trained gelding was nosed out as an odds-on favorite on Cal Cup day but still earned a career top speed figure in the process and a similar effort today should return him to winning form. If you’re looking for an exacta partner, you might want to consider #7 Viscount, a sharp and improving colt who figures to be running on strongly late as a route-to-sprint play.

The Juvenile Turf ushers in today’s Breeders’ Cup sequence and we’ll use #2 Viscount Nelson, #4 Pounced, and #11 Interactif in all of our rolling exotics. Viscount Nelson was rapidly improving at the end of his English two-year-old campaign according to Racing Post speed figures and with another forward move from a good inside post the Aidan O’Brien trained colt could be very dangerous. Another Euro shipper, Pounced, is a son of Rahy with plenty of speed and should be prominent throughout. Like Viscount Nelson, Pounced was starting to get very, very good at the tail end of the year and arrives fit and ready for Gosden. Interactif is the best of the American contingent, is unbeaten in two starts on turf, and should be rolling in the final furlong.

#6 Cannonball has been pointing for the BC Turf Sprint for some time and should be ready to explode for Ward in today's third race. He was impressive at Royal Ascot and even more so at Saratoga upon his return, and with a series of sharp local works under his belt, the speedy gelding looks like the one to beat at 8-1 on the morning line. Cannonball has the tactical speed to always be within range, so we'll use him as our rolling exotic single and pray for good racing luck.

The BC Sprint will have Zensational as the likely favorite in the fourth race but from the rail with the two speed types draw next to him, the Baffert-trained colt would be advised to leave with his field. He’s been working a hole in the wind and may never look back if can gain control early. However, #5 Gayego, unbeaten in four career starts at six furlongs, and #9 Fleeting Spirit, among the very best sprinters in Europe and leaving from a comfortable outside post, should be very dangerous and all three should be used in your rolling exotics.

The BC Juvenile goes as the fifth race and #13 Lookin At Lucky should be hard to beat, even with the disadvantage of the extreme outside post. He’s a perfect four-for-four and appears to be the type that only does what’s necessary. His recent workouts have been nothing short of sensational. If the outside post winds up compromising his chances, he could be in for a tussle with #3 Beethoven and #5 D’ Funnybone, and all three should be used in your rolling exotics. Beethoven added blinkers and ran like an entirely different colt when winning Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket and if can project that turf form around two turns over the Pro Ride surface he might be able to make a run for it. #5 D’Funnybone cleaned up in New York after being taken over by Rick Dutrow and he’s a solid fit on numbers with this group, assuming the two-turns and the switch to the Pro Ride won’t impede his progress.

The BC Mile marks the return of #11 Goldikova. She seems much best on paper but was victimized when assigned the extreme outside post. If she can tuck early and get covered up, she’ll likely perform similarly to last year, when she was a breathtaking winner of this same event. Also worth using in your rolling exotics are #8 Zacinto, a high class and lightly raced colt who was second to Rip Van Winkle at Ascot in his last start, and #9 Gladiatorus, back in winning form for Godolphin and likely the best of the pace-forcers.

#1 Mastercraftsman should be a short price to win the seventh race, the BC Dirt Mile. He’s won on synthetics overseas and arrives fresh from an easy victory in the Diamond Stakes over an all weather surface at Dundalk in Ireland, beating, among others, yesterday’s Marathon winner Man of Iron. If he leaves cleanly from the rail and secures favorable early position, the O’Brien-trained colt should out class this field. Also worth considering in your rolling exotics are #5 Neko Bay and #7 Pyro. Neko Bay was very impressive beating softer foes here earlier this meeting and with a forward move could be a serious threat at 20-1 on the morning line. Pyro, winner of the Forego Stakes at Saratoga, seems much better than his two previous all-weather attempts and figures to be doing his best running in the final furlong.

#2 Conduit tries for a repeat score in the BC Turf and the two horses he’ll have to be most concerned with are #6 Dar Re Mi, and #7 Spanish Moon. Dar Re Mi is a high class, long distance turf filly from the Gosden barn who tackled the boys in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and didn’t do badly at all, finishing a close up fifth. Spanish Moon was banned for six months by English stewards after acting up repeatedly at the gate during the loading process. He seems to be on his best behavior now and a duplication of his Dubai spring form makes him a solid threat. As for Conduit, he arrived in peak form for Sir Michael Stoute and anything close to his best effort puts him in the picture.

#4 Zenyatta seeks racing immortality as she tries to become the first filly or mare to win the BC Classic. On numbers she might not be up to it, and there’s no doubt that the competition will be exceedingly tougher and deeper that she's been used to seeing. But we have so much respect for her, we’ll use the unbeaten mare along with the very well-meant long shot #6 Richard’s Kid (12-1 on the morning line) and the razor sharp Euro-invader, #5 Twice Over. Richard’s Kid closed resolutely to be third in the Goodwood over this track last month, an effort that validated his sparkling Pacific Classic victory. No BC runner has trained any better than he has in the past few weeks. Twice Over is fresh from a scintillating win in the Group-1 Champion Stakes at Newmarket last month just three weeks ago. It was a grueling, taxing effort, but if he can run back to it under these conditions, the Cecil-trained colt would be a factor at 20-1 on the morning line.

The tenth race is the Oak Tree Derby, a highly competitive nine furlong turf event that could be won by any number of the entrants. It’s too tough to call, so we’ll sit it out.